The Good
A lot is
falling in Peyton Manning’s favor for him to play at a high level this season.
The number one thing that needs to happen to help Manning play well and stay
healthy is for him to stay upright. Despite having one of the worst offensive
lines in the league in his last year as a starter (2010-2011), the Colts were
tied for fewest sacks in the league with 16. While a change in offensive scheme
may force Peyton to take a little longer to release the ball, Ryan Clady and
Orland Franklin make up one of the best pairs of tackles in the league, and
Manning should again be near the bottom of the league in sacks taken.
Quarterbacks’
skills are supposed to decline with age, but Peyton entering his 14th
year as a starter and 15th year in the league, he has not shown many
signs of decline. In the 2010-2011 season, Peyton threw for more yards (4700)
than he did in 2009-2010 (4500). Similarly, Peyton sustained a touchdown output
of 33 TD passes in both seasons (a tie for the second most touchdowns he has
thrown in a season for his career).
Although
Peyton’s injury seems scary, the only comparable injury, Drew Brees’s shoulder
in 2005, makes Peyton’s outlook seem very positive. Although, like Peyton,
Brees was forecasted to never again be the player he was in San Diego, and
again, like Peyton, he had to come in and learn a totally different offense,
Brees’s first season in New Orleans was his first time as an All-Pro, and even
with his shoulder injury, he still threw for over 4000 yards.
Even if his
health, among other things, worries people around the league that we may not see
the same Peyton Manning, Peyton should still be in position to have a good
season because. Assuming his shoulder is close to what it once was, Peyton’s
numbers haven’t been going down, and he could play to a level close to how he
performed in Indianapolis. Denver presents him with a situation where he can
have a lot of success. However, his situation isn’t perfect, which brings me to
-
The Bad
Over the
course of his career, Peyton hasn’t just been a player on the Colts; he has
been the team. The offense was
totally built around him, he knew every play, audible, where receivers should
be, and where he thought the defense would be aligned like the back of his
hand. In Denver not only will he be running a totally different offense, but
the offensive philosophy will be totally different.
First of all, the focus on a “ground and pound” offense in Denver will not go away. No matter how good his quarterbacks have been John Fox has always been a conservative football coach and structured his offense around the running game. Having Peyton Manning will open up the running game even more than last season because teams will no longer be able to stack the box, but that does not mean that the ratio of run to pass will change significantly. This is especially true in Peyton’s first year in Denver because there is still a risk that he could re-injure that shoulder, and they want to run to protect him from taking unnecessary hits. As a result, a lot of his red zone touchdowns and yards between the 20s will go to Willis McGahee and maybe even Knowshon Moreno.
Although Denver’s
outstanding defense will help him win games, it won’t be doing him any favors
in fantasy. While the philosophy in Indianapolis was to use a pass rush to
force turnovers so Peyton could win the game, the defense has been and will
continue to play a much more prominent role in Denver. The Broncos will rarely
need Peyton to lead them to score more than 24 points, and accordingly they
will not throw as much as the Colts have in the past. But that’s not the worst
of it for Peyton.
The Ugly
Sometimes a
fantasy killer, Peyton’s interception numbers have been steadily higher later
in his career (especially 2010-2011) than earlier. Part of that comes from
other teams getting more pressure on Peyton because of a weaker offensive line,
but the other contributing factor is much scarier: he slightly overestimates
what he is still physically capable of doing. If Peyton is conscious of how the
neck injury affects him and he adapts his game accordingly, he should have an
efficient season. However, if he plays more like Brett Favre late in his career
and thinks he can make all of the throws that he used to then he could go from
being a potential top 8 QB to somewhere from 10-12.
Denver’s
schedule (especially a key matchup during fantasy playoff time in week 15) is
NOT favorable. They have to play several top defenses:
Pittsburg (#1 in total defense last year) in week 1
Houston (#4) in week 3
New England (#15 but much improved especially in the passing
game) in week 5
New Orleans (#13 but on the decline) in week 8
Cincinnati (#9) in week 9
Baltimore (#3) in week 15
The Baltimore matchup at the end of the season is enough to
scare me off from making Peyton a high draft pick in the end because even if he
has a solid season and stays healthy that matchup hugely reduces your chances at
a championship. He has a 2:1 TD to INT ratio against the Ravens in his career
(his 7th worst against any team), and the defense is much better at
forcing turnovers now than when he was putting up big numbers against them in
the middle of his career.
Prediction
Peyton should have a good bounce back season in 2012-13, but the Broncos philosophy more so than medical concerns will hold him back from being as dominate as he was in Indianapolis. I would use a fourth or fifth round pick on him. Expect comparable production to Tony Romo.
Peyton should have a good bounce back season in 2012-13, but the Broncos philosophy more so than medical concerns will hold him back from being as dominate as he was in Indianapolis. I would use a fourth or fifth round pick on him. Expect comparable production to Tony Romo.
